High school completion rates plummet, hitting university admissions hard
Fewer High School Graduates in 2024/25 Drives Drop in University Admissions
The share of students completing secondary education in the 2024/2025 academic year fell by 10.7 percentage points compared to the previous year—a decline that may explain the reduction in first-phase placements in higher education admissions.
According to the study "Decline in Higher Education Admissions for 2025/26: Diagnosis, Evidence, and Analysis," conducted by the office of the Secretary of State for Higher Education and obtained by Público, the number of students placed in the first phase of the national higher education admissions process dropped by 6,000 in 2025.
"While 90.1% of students in academic secondary programs had completed high school in 2023/24, that figure fell to 79.4% last year," the study notes, analyzing the drop in university enrollments for 2025/26.
The report argues that these shifts "directly impact the pool of potential applicants and, consequently, the number of placements, given that the average age of university entry closely follows high school graduation age."
The decline represents "nearly a 10% drop in total new enrollments (8,000 fewer than in 2024) across the entire system, including the national admissions process and other entry pathways," the study states, emphasizing that the shortfall "was not offset by subsequent phases or alternative admission routes."
Enrollment figures have fallen below pre-pandemic levels, reversing a previous upward trend and potentially jeopardizing Portugal's goal of having 50% of adults aged 25–34 hold a higher education degree by 2030.
Beyond the drop in high school graduates, the study highlights other contributing factors: "year-to-year volatility in national exam scores and the increased minimum number of required admission tests have further narrowed the pool of eligible candidates."
The decline may also stem from "weaknesses in the current social support system that limit access," a shrinking youth population, and "Portugal's heavy reliance on immediate post-secondary admissions."
Changes to the high school completion model and the new requirement of at least two admission exams have been singled out as primary drivers of the decline.
"Based on national admissions data from 2015 to 2025, this requirement accounted for roughly 46% of the first-phase drop in 2025/26, without any demonstrated gains in academic success," the report states.
Regarding high school completion rates, between 2019/20 and 2023/24, performance improved due to pandemic-era exceptions allowing students to take only the national exams needed for university admission (rather than requiring them to complete all exams for their academic programs).
The study notes that this period saw "a parallel rise in first-phase placements, which hovered around 50,000 in the national admissions process."
However, the report cautions that "it cannot be concluded that the decline in high school completion rates is solely due to changes in the minimum number of required national exams."
"Especially since completion rates in vocational programs also fell, and these students do not take national exams to finish secondary education," the document adds.
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