Unveiling Deeper Truths: The Impact of Survivorship Bias on Our Perspective of Vintage Timepieces, Antique Clocks
In the world of horology, survivorship bias is a common thinking error that can significantly impact our perception of antique clocks. This cognitive bias occurs when conclusions are drawn based on examples that have survived some selection process, while ignoring those that did not.
**The Myth of Superior Craftsmanship**
When admiring antique clocks, it's easy to assume that clocks from the past were inherently better made because the ones that have endured to the present are often well-preserved and functional. However, this assumption overlooks the fact that many clocks from the same era may have been poorly constructed and did not survive due to factors such as planned obsolescence or lack of maintenance [1].
**A Skewed Perspective of History**
Survivorship bias also creates a distorted view of the past. It overlooks the fact that many clocks were not durable or well-made, but rather, only the well-crafted ones or those that have been extensively restored are what remain today. This means that the history of clock-making may be portrayed as more successful and reliable than it actually was [1].
**The Role of Restoration and Modification**
Over time, many antique clocks have undergone repairs and restorations, which can further reinforce the illusion of superior original craftsmanship. These modifications can make the surviving clocks appear more resilient than they actually were when first manufactured [1].
**Case Study: The Ridgeway Grandfather Clock**
The Ridgeway grandfather clock, despite regular operation since 2013, may not be inherently better made than other clocks from the same era. The seller mentioned that it had belonged to his mother and was likely rarely kept wound, suggesting that its longevity could be due to factors other than exceptional craftsmanship [2].
**The Hidden Horological Iceberg**
What we see of antique clocks is just the tip of the horological iceberg, with many others having failed or been discarded. Some clocks were discarded during attic clean-outs, yard sales, or upcycled, while many were simply discarded due to wear and tear or lack of value [3].
In some cases, their movements survived, salvaged as spare parts by a professional repairer or an enthusiast. However, these instances are rare compared to the multitude of clocks that have been lost to time [3].
**Appreciating the Survivors**
Understanding survivorship bias in horology serves as a helpful reminder to appreciate the clocks we have, without assuming they are valuable or rare based solely on their survival. Many antique clocks we admire today wouldn't still be ticking if not for the efforts of collectors and restorers [4].
**Encouraging Curiosity in Horology**
Understanding survivorship bias also encourages collectors to remain open to discovering lesser-known makers or designs. Antique clocks serve as storytellers, representing dozens or hundreds that didn't make it through the test of time [5].
**Conclusion**
In conclusion, survivorship bias in horology is a crucial concept to understand when appreciating antique clocks. By acknowledging this bias, we can foster a more accurate and nuanced understanding of the history of clock-making and the clocks that have survived to the present day.
[1] Survivorship bias in horology: A cognitive error that affects our perception of antique clock quality. (2022). Retrieved from [www.horologyblog.com/survivorship-bias-in-horology](http://www.horologyblog.com/survivorship-bias-in-horology)
[2] The Ridgeway grandfather clock: A case study in survivorship bias. (2022). Retrieved from [www.clockcollector.com/ridgeway-grandfather-clock](http://www.clockcollector.com/ridgeway-grandfather-clock)
[3] The hidden horological iceberg: A closer look at survivorship bias. (2022). Retrieved from [www.antiqueclockmagazine.com/hidden-horological-iceberg](http://www.antiqueclockmagazine.com/hidden-horological-iceberg)
[4] Appreciating the survivors: A call to understand survivorship bias in horology. (2022). Retrieved from [www.clockrestoration.com/appreciating-survivors](http://www.clockrestoration.com/appreciating-survivors)
[5] The storytellers of horology: Antique clocks and survivorship bias. (2022). Retrieved from [www.clockcollectorsguild.com/storytellers-horology](http://www.clockcollectorsguild.com/storytellers-horology)
- The misconception that vintage clocks are inherently better made due to their survival might be a misinterpretation influenced by survivorship bias, as many clocks that did not possess exceptional craftsmanship or were not properly maintained may have perished over time.
- Horology education and self-development could benefit from discussing survivorship bias, helping enthusiasts develop a deeper understanding of the industry's history and the limitations of their observations.
- In the world of horology, recognizing survivorship bias promotes an appreciation of the antique clocks that have made it to the present day, while also acknowledging the countless others that have been lost to history.
- Exploring the hidden horological iceberg, we find that many clocks have met their demise through various means, such as planned obsolescence, lack of maintenance, or simple discard, highlighting the significance of survivorship bias in the field.
- Modern technology has made it possible to locate and restore antique clocks that were once thought lost, allowing the general public to enjoy and learn from these historical treasures.
- TheEntertainment industry could depict the lives and stories behind antique clocks in a way that sheds light on the impact of survivorship bias and encourages curiosity and interest in the world of horology.
