Schools Face Crisis as Student Numbers Plummet to Record Lows
Schools across the country are facing a sharp decline in student numbers. This year, total enrolment in elementary, middle, and high schools dropped below 5 million for the first time. The trend is also pushing more institutions toward extremely small class sizes, with many struggling to maintain even 10 graduates per year.
The latest figures reveal a steady fall in new students. Only 298,178 children entered first grade this year—the first time the number has dipped below 300,000. Meanwhile, 153 schools closed between 2021 and 2025, with 51 shutting last year alone due to mergers or low enrolment.
Small graduating classes are becoming more common. Currently, 1,863 schools have 10 or fewer graduates, but this figure is expected to jump to 2,026 by 2030. Elementary schools are the hardest hit, with 1,469 now graduating 10 or fewer pupils—projected to rise to 1,584 in six years.
Middle schools are also seeing a shift. The number with tiny graduating classes will grow from 358 this year to 417 by 2030. Similarly, schools with 10 or fewer incoming students have reached 2,196, with forecasts suggesting 2,257 by the end of the decade.
Within four years, over 2,000 schools will have fewer than 10 graduates annually. The decline reflects broader demographic changes, as fewer children enter the education system each year.
The data highlights a growing challenge for schools with shrinking student bodies. By 2030, more than 2,000 institutions will graduate fewer than 10 pupils each year. Without intervention, the trend of closures and consolidations is likely to continue as enrolment numbers keep falling.
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