Putin’s Ukraine War Fuels Anxiety as Russia Faces Social and Economic Strain
Russian society is facing deep uncertainty as the war in Ukraine drags on. After 15 years of economic stagnation and tightening repression, many citizens are questioning the government’s promises of victory. Meanwhile, concerns persist about the Kremlin’s long-term ambitions in the region.
The mood across the country is now dominated by anxiety rather than patriotism or confidence in the future.
President Vladimir Putin remains focused on his long-standing goal of restoring control over Ukraine. He continues to view the country as part of Russia’s historical sphere, alongside Belarus. Yet, despite this unwavering aim, a full-scale military assault on the Baltic region appears unlikely in the near term. Russia’s ongoing commitment in Ukraine and NATO’s collective defence pact under Article 5 make such a move too risky.
The Kremlin is also wary of destabilising the Baltic Sea, a critical route for Russian exports and its connection to Kaliningrad. Most incidents involving damaged undersea cables in the area are more likely the result of overlapping risk factors than deliberate sabotage. Still, tensions persist, with warnings that misjudgements or reckless actions by lower-level officials could escalate into unintended conflict.
At home, Russia is poorly prepared for the social fallout of the war. Hundreds of thousands of soldiers returning from the frontlines may bring with them a surge in PTSD, alcoholism, and unrest. The Kremlin recognises the fragility of its own society and fears losing control as discontent grows.
Claims that Russia is poised to attack the Baltic states often mix up intent with actual capability. Some analysts suggest these warnings serve domestic political purposes rather than reflect real threats. The greater risk, they argue, lies in hybrid tactics—actions that test boundaries without provoking all-out war.
Russia’s immediate military focus remains on Ukraine, but the war’s strain is showing at home. With public anxiety rising and economic pressures mounting, the Kremlin faces growing challenges in maintaining stability. The risk of unintended escalation in the Baltic region, while not inevitable, remains a concern for neighbouring states and NATO.
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