G9 Effect: Universities Prepare for Shortage of Graduates - NRW universities brace for 50% drop in 2026 student applications
Universities across North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) are preparing for a sharp drop in student applications in 2026. The decline follows a major change in the state’s school system, with the final G8 cohort graduating in 2025 and the first watch G9 cohort finishing in 2027. This gap means far fewer high school leavers will apply for university places next year.
The shift from an eight-year (G8) to a nine-year (G9) Gymnasium system lies at the heart of the issue. In 2026, NRW will see only around 30,000 graduates—less than half the usual 70,500. The numbers are then expected to rebound to about 70,500 in 2027.
Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf predicts a temporary fall of up to 50% in applications for both the 2026/27 winter and summer semesters. The University of Cologne also anticipates a noticeable dip in enrolment, though it expects better admission chances for most subjects.
Ruhr University Bochum (RUB) has already responded by scrapping Numerus Clausus (NC) restrictions in four degree programmes. Other subjects at RUB may see their NC thresholds lowered due to reduced competition. However, some courses at the University of Münster could keep their existing entry requirements, even with fewer applicants.
The University of Duisburg-Essen, meanwhile, foresees an increase in applicants from other federal states, as well as graduates from comprehensive schools and vocational colleges. These students may fill some of the gaps left by the missing G8 cohort.
The 2026 academic year will bring a 19% drop in first watch students across NRW. While some universities adjust their entry rules, others may maintain stricter thresholds. The situation is set to return to normal in 2027, once the first G9 graduates complete their studies.
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