A Near Miss for Pierre Poilievre: An Analysis of the 2025 Canadian Election
Humorous Downfall of Pierre Poilievre in Elections
In a surprising turn of events, Pierre Poilievre came very close to clinching the highest Conservative party victory since Brian Mulroney in 1988. However, the triumph slipped through his fingers, and he even lost his own seat in Carleton.
This election campaign tale could be titled, Trump: The Unforeseen Ally of Carney, as the impassioned discourse from former US President Donald Trump set the Canadian political landscape ablaze after his proposed annexation and 51st state aspirations.
The subtitle, however, might echo a famous U2 hit, Poilievre: On the Brink Yet Out of Reach.
Exactly one year ago, Pierre Poilievre was leading with 42.1%, 18 points ahead of Justin Trudeau's Liberals. In this election, the Conservatives collected 41.3% of the votes. The Conservative vote didn't plummet, quite the contrary.
It was the NDP and Green vote that plunged. The Bloc vote also receded but didn't collapse entirely. These NDP, Green, and Bloc votes mainly moved towards the Liberals.
In a world without Trump's influence, Pierre Poilievre might well have made it to the prime minister's office today. But as Trump noted this week, he doesn't merely oversee the US; he also steers the world...
The formula is undoubtedly a product of the alternative facts cherished by Trumpists, yet it can't be denied that Trump stirs intense reactions globally. Canadians especially feel threatened by the American president who seems to view Russia as a friend and Canada as an inconvenience. And that's precisely why Canadians voted against Trump, figuratively speaking, on Monday.
Will Pierre Poilievre persist as the leader of the Conservative Party? The party has yet to forgive the defeat of its past leaders, Erin O'Toole and Andrew Scheer, who were quickly ousted following their losses. We'll see if Mr. Poilievre can avoid the dreaded Conservative gravitational pull.
Last year, on Monday, progressive voices mocked the defeat of the Conservatives and their leader in Carleton. It's at least reckless to do so: with just two percentage points less than the Liberals, Poilievre-style conservatism proved appealing to a significant portion of the Canadian electorate.
One might argue that the Conservative leader should have been more media-friendly, more focused on the Trump threat, more smiling, less angry...
Perhaps, perhaps...
I don't think Mr. Poilievre, the man, can transform his style. When he attacks, he breathes sincerity. One feels completely at ease with him even in the midst of limitless vitriol and unremitting anathemas. And when he smiles, the former Carleton MP reeks of insincerity.
But with his style and his message, Mr. Poilievre still managed to gather nearly 8 million Canadians behind him, only a few hundred thousand votes shy of those who granted the keys to the government to Mark Carney...
At 41.3% support, the seatless leader is but a blink (39.6%) away from the percentage of votes that gave Stephen Harper a majority in 2011. And it's greater support than what Justin Trudeau gathered when he won his 2015 majority.
If it's a strange defeat for Mr. Poilievre, it's a bizarre victory for Mr. Carney. He didn't steal anything, on the contrary. His predecessor was deemed as useful as a pint of milk left in a car trunk for two weeks in the middle of a heatwave. But Mr. Carney inherits a nation divided, almost in two.
The lesson of this election? It's that nothing is ever certain. You never know what can happen in politics... And in life at large. This election is the prime example of that.
Politics appears predictable until it isn't. A party can be destined for power until an unexpected cosmic event disrupts long-established norms.
Trump had that cosmic impact on Canadian politics in recent unpredictable months, shattering Poilievre's path to power.
Unpredictable?
I never thought the NDP could vanish. Given the results of Monday, it's a real possibility. With seven MPs - none in Ontario -, the neo-democrats will lose resources and visibility.
Unpredictable?
Last fall, I interviewed a seemingly unbeatable Yves-François Blanchet, according to polls that showed the Bloc almost in a position to form the official opposition. It was obviously a far-fetched scenario, but it was a scenario that circulated because the NDP and the PLC-Trudeau were in the basement.
Unpredictable?
One can think what one wants of Pierre Poilievre, but the results of this extraordinary election show that even in defeat, he is a formidable political force.
The Liberals should have a modest, modest triumph.
- The French phrase for Canadian politics was ignited by former US President Donald Trump's impassioned discourse about annexation and the 51st state.
- The disappointing election outcome for Pierre Poilievre may have been attributed to the NDP and Green votes that plummeted, along with the Bloc vote's recession.
- If Trump's influence were absent, Pierre Poilievre might have seized the prime minister's position today.
- The world is steered by Trump's actions, with Canadians viewing him as a potential threat to their nation.
- The Conservatives garnered 41.3% of the votes in this election, demonstrating a rise in support, not a plummet.
- Personal growth and mindfulness can help one navigate political conflicts and conflicts, as understanding different perspectives is essential.
- War-and-conflicts and the threat posed by Trump impacted the Canadian election's result.
- Education-and-self-development and career-development opportunities are vital for building a successful and productive career.
- Despite the setback, Pierre Poilievre still garners the support of nearly 8 million Canadians, only a few hundred thousand votes shy of Mark Carney's victory.
- Poilievre's unique leadership style may prevent him from attracting a broader audience on the political spectrum.
- The Conservative Party may face inner turmoil as it decides whether to accept Poilievre's leadership style or seek a more media-friendly, conciliatory approach.
- Policy-and-legislation is critical in defining a nation's direction, and it's crucial for a leader to convey a clear vision to the electorate.
- Learning from sports and athletes can help one set goals, persevere, and develop the skill-set necessary for success.
- Online-education and job-search platforms have revolutionized learning and job opportunities, making education and career development more accessible than ever before.
- General-news outlets should monitor politics closely to provide accurate and timely information to the public.
- Crime-and-justice policy is a significant concern for Canadians, and it's essential to tackle it with a comprehensive and empathetic approach.
- Productivity and focus are essential for achieving success in one's goals and ambitions.
- Accidents, fires, and unexpected events require a swift and coordinated response from authorities to minimize damage and loss.
- Lifelong-learning and continuous skill-training are essential for adaptability and success in today's rapidly changing world.
- Sports fans can find entertainment in sports-betting, tennis, golf, basketball, baseball, football, mixed-martial-arts, racing, premier-league, and European leagues.
- Sports-analysis provides insights into tactics, strategies, and performance of various teams and athletes, helping fans and coaches to improve their gameplay.
- Goal-setting and goal-achievement are essential for personal growth, self-development, and overall success in life.
- Migration patterns are impacted by various factors, including economic, political, and social conditions in different countries.
- Government policy should address issues like gravity and space exploration to ensure the safety of citizens and the environment.
