HR Directors Use Judgmental Forecasting to Predict Staffing Needs

HR directors are turning to judgmental forecasting to anticipate future staffing needs. By combining expert judgment with data-driven models, they aim to make more informed decisions.

, and Administrator

2025 September 30 . 7:12 PM

1 min read

The picture is an office space. In the picture there are lot employees seated in the chairs in... — The picture is an office space. In the picture there are lot employees seated in the chairs in front of the tables. In the center of the image on the table there are many bottles, papers on the tables. Floor is wooden one. On the right there is a backpack and on left corner also there are two backpacks. In the top left in the background there is a board in the background there is a man standing. In the right there is a camera in the background in the middle there is a speaker and sign boards and projector also and to the ceiling there are lights. In the middle there is black color curtain to the table. Many many men wore suits.

HR Directors Use Judgmental Forecasting to Predict Staffing Needs

HR directors are employing judgemental forecasting to predict future staffing needs. This approach involves reviewing historical data and trends, assessing the current situation, and estimating future headcount requirements. Two main methods are used: top-down and bottom-up.

In the bottom-up approach, line managers and department heads forecast their own staffing needs based on anticipated workload and projects. Factors considered include projected business growth, turnover rates, process changes, productivity trends, and skill requirements. Meanwhile, the top-down approach involves senior management providing high-level estimates, which are then broken down by department or function.

Judgemental forecasting relies on the expertise and judgement of HR professionals or management teams. However, it can be subject to individual biases and assumptions, so it's often used in combination with more quantitative techniques. HR directors also use predictive models based on statistical methods and algorithms developed by data scientists. These models analyze historical and current employee data to forecast future personnel needs and inform strategic decisions.

The success of judgemental forecasting depends on the accuracy of the information analyzed and the soundness of the estimates made. By combining this approach with quantitative techniques and predictive models, HR directors can make more informed decisions about future staffing requirements.