Fresh off the press, a new report from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC) reveals a significant rise in college freshman enrollment. This uptick totals an impressive 5.5% compared to last year's figures.
Freshman enrollment in colleges and universities saw a surprising 5.5% surge during the fall of the current year, according to a recent report by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC). This translates to approximately 130,000 additional students. This positive development replaces an earlier estimate by the NSCRC, which incorrectly predicted a 5% decrease in freshman enrollment. The center acknowledged its mistake, attributing it to a "methodological error" that misclassified certain students as dual-enrolled instead of freshmen.
The revised figure is based on data from the vast majority of participating institutions in the Clearinghouse. This growth in freshman enrollment contributed to an overall 4.7% increase in undergraduate enrollment nationwide, equivalent to 716,000 additional students. Total enrollment also saw a 4.5% boost, adding 817,000 students, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.
The growth was not limited to freshman enrollment. Graduate enrollment also experienced a 3.2 million student increase, a 3.3% rise. Community colleges saw particularly strong freshman enrollment growth, with 63,000 additional students, marking a 7.1% increase.
Executive Director of the NSCRC, Doug Shapiro, expressed optimism, stating, "It's encouraging to see the total number of postsecondary students rise above pre-pandemic levels for the first time this fall." He also noted that the growth in freshman enrollment was driven by older first-year students, with 18-year-olds still lagging behind their 2019 numbers.
Every Sector Experiences Growth
Each major higher education sector reported an increase in overall enrollment, with private, for-profit institutions leading the pack in percentage growth (7.5%). Public, two-year colleges followed closely with a 5.8% increase, followed by private, nonprofit schools (3.8%) and public four-year institutions (3.1%).
Expansion in Undergraduate Programs
Undergraduate certificate program enrollment saw a 9.9% growth for the fourth consecutive year, with those programs now 28.5% higher than in 2019. Enrollment in both bachelor's and associate's degree programs also increased, although they remain below the 2019 levels, with a 2.9% and 6.3% boost, respectively.
Public two-year institutions focusing on vocational programs saw double-digit growth for the second consecutive year, accounting for 19.5% of enrollment in public two-year colleges, up from 15.3% in 2019. Dual enrollment also saw a 10.2% rise over the previous fall.
Demographic Trends
Both male and female undergraduates saw similar enrollment growth rates. Black and Hispanic students led the way with 6.8% gains, followed by native Hawaiian and Pacific Islanders (6%), multiracial students (5.6%), Asians (4.2%), Native Americans (2.3%), and white students (1%). International student enrollment also experienced a significant 9.3% increase.
Enrollment gains were seen across all income quintiles, with the bottom quintile experiencing a 7.3% increase, more than twice the 3.5% growth for students from the top income quintile. At the graduate level, all racial/ethnic groups reported enrollment growth, with Hispanic, Black, Asian, and multiracial students gaining by more than 8%, while white student enrollment grew by 2.5%.
Regional and State Differences
Enrollment growth was observed across all regions, with institutions in the Northeast recording the first gain since the pandemic. The South and the West saw similar gains (4.7% and 4.6%), followed by the Midwest (3.1%).
Most states experienced enrollment increases, with North Carolina and Tennessee, reporting a 10.9% and 8.3% undergraduate increase, respectively. Nebraska and Vermont were the only states to record losses less than 1%.
The positive enrollment trends eased some of the gloom caused by the NSCRC's mistaken preliminary data pointing to a decline in freshman enrollment. However, the error has prompted the center to consider discontinuing its preliminary enrollment reports, as their need has lessened with the passage of time.
The sustained enrollment progress comes as higher education institutions prepare for a predicted double-digit decline in high school graduates over the next 15 years, coupled with lingering questions about the value of postsecondary education and shifting employment requirements. These factors could exert downward pressure on postsecondary enrollment, making the current growth particularly significant.
[1] The Hechinger Report, “New U.S. report shows declines in college freshman enrollment,” Feb. 8, 2022.[2] NSCRC, “Current Term Enrollment Estimates,” Nov. 2022.[3] Forbes, “College Enrollment Rebounds, as Freshman Numbers Rise Above Pre-Pandemic Levels,” Dec. 5, 2022.[5] The Hechinger Report, “Enrollment decline at many U.S. colleges is linked to demographics and more,” Feb. 22, 2022.
- The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC) reported that graduate students in private, nonprofit institutions also experienced a 3.3% increase in enrollment during the same period.
- Dual enrollment programs, which allow high school students to earn college credits, saw a 10.2% rise during the fall, according to data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
- Community colleges, which often serve underrepresented student populations, saw a significant boost in undergraduate enrollment with a 7.1% increase, according to research conducted by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
- The "demographic cliff" predicted by some experts, which refers to a decline in college-aged students due to changes in birth rates, could potentially challenge the positive enrollment trends reported by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
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