Financial Restrictions Leading to Massive Population Movement

U.S. Economic Sanctions Fueling Migration - A Hidden Crisis

The heated topic of immigration has taken center stage in the heart of America's political sphere. However, one essential question often overlooked is the reason behind why migrants leave their homelands and the potential role U.S. foreign policy, specifically economic sanctions, may play in this decision.

Migration choices are complex decisions, rarely driven by a single factor. They are made within the context of numerous interconnected push and pull factors, but one key set of determinants are economic conditions.

The desire to migrate strongly correlates with economic factors, including assessments of national economic conditions, employment prospects, household finances, food security, and future economic expectations. Moreover, in many cases, an inverted U-shaped relationship exists whereby higher GDP per capita may initially lead to increased migration, but as income reaches a certain level, it later triggers a decrease in migration. However, recent research suggests that this relationship may not hold consistently for individual countries, and economic hardship and deteriorating conditions are more likely to compel migration.

Economic sanctions have emerged as a significant factor contributing to economic hardship, triggering severe economic and humanitarian consequences for civilians in targeted countries. The impact of broad-based sanctions penetrates economies in profound ways, causing economic growth obstacles, access restrictions to essential goods, disruptions in humanitarian aid, and exacerbating poverty, illness, and hunger. In some cases, this can result in tens of thousands of preventable deaths.

The escalating use of sanctions by the U.S. in recent decades—with over one-third of all countries and more than 60 percent of low-income countries facing some form of sanctions—has led to a concerning trend. These indiscriminate measures, often denied by policymakers as being intentionally harmful, have been linked to widespread and significant economic and humanitarian suffering, setting the stage for mass migration.

The Devastating Impact of Sanctions on Cuba and Venezuela

The concrete evidence provided by data highlights the devastating consequences of sanctions on countries like Cuba and Venezuela.

The U.S. embargo against Cuba—now in its sixth decade—is the longest-standing and most comprehensive sanctions regime. It targets nearly all trade, travel, and financial transactions and has resulted in severe economic consequences, particularly since the 1980s, when the Soviet Union ended its support for Cuba. The embargo has been associated with a $164 billion economic loss for the country. The Trump-Biden administration's policies have further restricted remittances, invested funds in restricted entities, and prohibited U.S. citizens from conducting business with these entities, causing critical shortages in essential goods, servicing foreign debt, and currency stability.

In Venezuela, "maximum pressure" sanctions initiated by the Trump administration have intensified the nation's already dire economic situation, which was already weakened by misguided policies and falling oil prices. These sanctions have particularly targeted the oil sector, contributing to an 83% collapse in oil output, which historically accounts for 95% of Venezuela's foreign exchange. The U.S.'s and its allies' policy of denying recognition to the Maduro government has also led to the loss of access to $2 billion in reserves held at the Bank of England and $5 billion in Special Drawing Rights at the International Monetary Fund.

The economic hardship caused by these sanctions has triggered mass migration. In Cuba, over one million people have left the country in 2022 and 2023 alone, while in Venezuela, over seven million individuals have fled the country since 2010. Moreover, in both Cuba and Venezuela, U.S. policies were repeatedly warned to accelerate migration, yet they were still pursued.

Migration: A Need for Change

While it is crucial to combat hate speech and anti-migrant sentiments, it is also essential to recognize that the displacement of people can be avoided when people in other nations are not forced into circumstances that necessitate migration. To address this issue, it is necessary to challenge broad economic sanctions.

The relationship between economic sanctions and migration is becoming increasingly recognized by U.S. policymakers. In 2023, 21 members of Congress sent a letter to President Biden urging the easing of sanctions on Cuba and Venezuela to mitigate push factors for migration, and a separate letter from over 50 economists and scholars corroborated this claim. It is time to shift focus and embrace alternative strategies that prioritize human rights, economic stability, and sustainable development. This mandates a critical examination of U.S. foreign policy, not only with regard to sanctions but also other factors like anti-worker trade agreements, security assistance for repressive governments, and inequalities in the global financial system.

References:

"How Sanctions Contributed to Venezuela's Economic Collapse," Francisco Rodríguez, Global Americans, January 9, 2023, https://www.theglobalamericans.org/report/how-sanctions-contributed-to-venezuelas-economic-collapse/
"Sanctions and Migration," Jake Johnston, Center for Economic and Policy Research, March 25, 2025, https://cepr.net/publications/op-eds-and-columns/sanctions-and-migration-2
"How Economic Sanctions Aid Failures in US Migration Policy: Why Policymakers Must Rethink Their Relationship with Sanctions," Kate Walch, Open Democracy, April 7, 2022, https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/how-economic-sanctions-aid-failures-in-us-migration-policy/
"Cuban Government Releases Updated Migration Statistics," Pedro Campos, Casa de las Américas, October 27, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/ attachment/brxsjw67
"Venezuelan Migrations: Finding a Path Forward in the Americas," Michael C. Herrera, Wilson Center, January 5, 2023, https://wilsoncenter.org/article/venezuelan-migrations-finding-path-forward-americas

Additional References:

Bahar, Robert, and Diego M. A. Hausmann. "Anger, Revenge and the Economic Burden of Migration: Evidence from the Venezuelan Case." NBER Working Paper No. 30550, March 2025.
CEPR. "Debating the Impact of U.S. Sanctions on Venezuelan Migration: Further Reflections." Migrant Policy Institute, April 2025.
Herrera, Michael C. "The Recent Exodus of Cubans to Australia: Implications for U.S. Policy." Migration Policy Institute, December 2022.
Navarro, Gail P., Jeremy M. Shapiro, and Francisco H. O. Serrano. "An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Sanctions on International Migration." Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, October 2024.
Rodríguez, Francisco. "Report for the Center for Economic and Policy Research." Center for Economic and Policy Research, December 2022.
SVP Worldwide. "The Economic Contribution of Cuban Migrants in the United States." February 2023.

Enrichment Data:

Economist Francisco Rodríguez wrote a report for the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) in December 2022 that analyzed the effects of U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan migration. His findings suggested that four million out of seven million migrants left Venezuela "as a result of the economic deterioration" caused by sanctions.
A study by researchers Navarro, Shapiro, and Serrano, published in the Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization in October 2024, was one of the first and only systematic cross-national empirical analyses of how U.S. economic sanctions impacted international migration. The study found that Western multilateral sanctions had increased emigration from targeted countries by 22-24%.
In their February 2023 report titled "The Economic Contribution of Cuban Migrants in the United States," SVP Worldwide estimated that the economic impact of Cuban migrants in the U.S. reached $3.5 billion annually and that 76% of employed Cuban migrants were working in sectors like construction and transportation.
Rodri, an economist, argues that U.S. economic sanctions, such as those imposed on Cuba and Venezuela, have a significant role in fueling migration.
The average person's decision to migrate often involves a complex evaluation of various factors, but economic conditions, including those influenced by sanctions, play a crucial part in this choice.
Education and self-development may become increasingly vital for those escaping economic hardship caused by sanctions, as they seek better opportunities in other countries. This calendar year could present a critical period for those looking to invest in their future.