EU enlargement gains urgency but keeps strict conditions post-Ukraine war
The EU's approach to enlargement has shifted noticeably since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Discussions among leaders have grown more frequent, and the tone has become more supportive. Yet despite the urgency, the process remains firmly tied to strict conditions and gradual reforms.
Before the invasion, the EU had five official candidate countries. That number has since risen to nine, with Ukraine and Moldova granted candidate status on 23 June 2022, followed by Bosnia and Herzegovina on 15 December 2022. Georgia also joined the list, while accession talks began with Albania and North Macedonia. The current candidates now include Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine.
EU leaders have framed enlargement in stronger terms, blending political rhetoric with security concerns. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's speeches reflect this shift, emphasising both geopolitical necessity and the EU's normative values. The European Parliament has followed suit, with every major party's 2024 manifesto referencing enlargement—though none propose speeding up the process. Yet the core of enlargement policy remains unchanged. Progress still depends on each country meeting EU accession criteria step by step, without exceptions. While geopolitical pressures have opened doors, procedural rules continue to dictate the pace. Some analysts suggest the peak of post-invasion momentum may have passed, as internal divisions and bureaucratic hurdles create delays. Experts argue that to capitalise on the current geopolitical moment, the EU should tie candidate reforms more directly to Europe's broader security and resilience. But for now, proceduralism holds firm, keeping new members in a lengthy waiting period.
The EU's candidate list has expanded significantly since 2022, reflecting a new sense of urgency. However, the path to membership remains slow and conditional. Without faster reforms or deeper political alignment, the recent wave of enlargement enthusiasm could lose momentum.
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