Elections Results Leave Opposition's Future Uncertain

Rewritten Article:

Let's dive into the aftermath of the opposition primaries, where the far-right has taken a nose-dive, leaving question marks galore in its wake. Maria Corina Machado, the victor of the primaries, intended to snuff out any rival in the anti-Chavista spectrum and establish herself as the unified presidential candidate. But alas, her plan didn't pan out as anticipated, and the political landscape a month later still looks murky.

The moves by the government and other opposition forces have stirred up the uncertainties that already existed before the primaries.

Digging into Deception

On one side, Chavismo, through the Attorney General's Office, has sparked an investigation into alleged voter turnout and vote manipulation. Initially, it seemed like a standard damage control move, but whisperings claim that officials questioned by prosecutors confirmed inflated numbers to possibly mislead people about the actual participation and Machado's landslide victory.

These alleged testimonies are in the Attorney General's hands, waiting to be exposed at an opportune moment.

These claims piggyback on previous accusations made by runner-up Carlos Prosperi from one of the factions of Democratic Action, a historically powerful political party divided into two blocs. To add fuel to the suspicions, these allegations initially gained support from AD leader, Henry Ramos Allup, but he seemingly abandoned Prosperi on election day in favor of the primaries and their outcomes.

Other opposition leaders and activists have amplified the suspicion that it was all a grand smokescreen. They've pointed to supposed figures handled by the US State Department, stating that Machado garnered only around 930,000 votes, while the official number exceeds 2.2 million.

Simple calculations based on the number of polling stations and the time required for manual voting make it tricky to believe the participation numbers of over 2.5 million voters. However, the media and social media narrative prevailed as the truth, particularly in the international sphere where Machado was undoubtedly anointed as the new leader of the Venezuelan opposition and potential heir to Juan Guaidó in his role as head of an interim government that refuses to vaporize.

The Remaining Contenders

With the dust settled after the primaries, the vanquished pre-candidates (apart from Prosperi) acknowledged Machado as the winner, but that didn't mean an end to the internal electoral debate within the opposition.

Among the presidential hopefuls still at it outside the primaries are Benjamin Rausseo, a comedian with a brash style, a successful businessman known as "el Conde del Guácharo"; José Brito, a dissident from the Justice First party since 2020; Luis Eduardo Martínez, a veteran leader backed by the other faction of Acción Democrática; independent Manuel Isidro Molina, a journalist and former Movement to Socialism party member; and the lawyer and Chavismo rebel, María Alejandra Díaz.

The critical point remains that Machado cannot run for public office until 2030, so her resounding victory in the primaries won't translate to her presidential candidacy being registered for 2024.

The far-right leader's extreme stance is considered one of the reasons for her rise as an opposition figure (she's been on the scene for over 20 years but has now peaked), yet this very same stance makes it tough for her ban to be lifted. Someone advocating for "eradicating socialism forever" can't expect leniency from potential victims.

Saucy talk has it that Machado is weighing her options: leading a street rebellion to force the government to accept her candidacy, calling for abstention in the presidential elections, or appointing a proxy, a candidate who represents her in the process and ultimately appoints her as vice-president.

Potential proxies mentioned include lawyer Gerardo Blyde, who has overseen the opposition delegation in the dialogue process with the government for a few years, and Venezuelan tycoon Lorenzo Mendoza, owner of Empresas Polar, one of the largest conglomerates in the country's food, beer, and soft drinks sectors. Mendoza might have appeared as a possible outsider in past presidential elections, so he can't be dismissed as a candidate.

Machado might not manage to go "all the way," as her campaign slogan says, but there's no denying she'll create turmoil in the 2024 presidential vote, both for President Nicolas Maduro in his role as candidate for reelection and for whoever turns out to be the main opposition candidate.

It's predictable that, from her position as winner of the primaries and with the support of international forces, she'll direct her fire against the government and against the qualified opposition candidates. The latter will be accused of collaborating with the government to help them remain in power.

The Essequibo Referendum

Apart from the official investigation of irregularities in the primaries, the other event designed to puncture Machado's victory parade is the referendum on the Essequibo.

The call for the sudden consultation has jumpstarted the Socialist Party's electoral machinery and even managed to go beyond, given the critical importance of the issue. The turnout numbers from November 19's dry-run make it possible to imagine that the government will end the year with a symbolic success that will have overshadowed (when it comes to the capacity for mobilization to vote) the primaries, especially if the witness statements made by the directors of the primary organizers to prosecutors are made public.

Machado tried to play down the referendum by saying "sovereignty isn't consulted; it's exercised," but she's been no match for a large number of political and civil organizations not aligned with the government that have joined the call for the Essequibo consultation.

Her argument crumbles when she claims the referendum (a quintessential electoral act) is just a maneuver by the "dictatorship."

The Milei Effect

These internal shuffles in Venezuela coincided with the triumph of Javier Milei, an abrasive ultraright-winger, in Argentina. The success of Milei, who has similar radical proposals against socialism and the State as Machado and other Venezuelan far-right figures, including some who are outside the country, has given wings to the aspirations of those who share his extreme anti-socialist ideals.

The fact that broad popular and middle-class sectors have backed a candidate who has openly vowed to abolish their social rights (including public healthcare and education) makes Venezuelan ultrarightists optimistic that this outrageous phenomenon could reoccur in Venezuela, primarily due to the grave economic difficulties suffered by the majority of the population as a result of the US-led blockade, unilateral coercive measures, internal economic war, and widespread corruption.

The radical anti-Chavismo factions, with Machado taking the lead, hope that Milei's initial steps in his mission to systematically dismantle the Argentinian State will be perceived favorably by large sections of the Venezuelan population who have been influenced by the anti-socialist discourse and that this will lead to the application of pressure that will force the government to validate Machado's candidacy for 2024.

On the other hand, there are those who predict that Milei's first moves will create such instability in South America that sooner rather than later he’ll become a liability for any right-wing candidate who intends to walk in his footsteps. Time will tell.

"The vaccine against the Mileis, which must be used by popular democratic projects, is to present and execute programs that are well differentiated from neoliberalism, and ethical and democratic methods opposed to those practiced by the right-wing, consistency between what is said and what is done," Elias Jaua Milano, former Venezuelan Vice President.

Clodovaldo Hernandez is a journalist and political analyst with experience in higher education. He won the National Journalism Prize (Opinion category) in 2002. He is the author of the books Reinventario (poetry and short stories), De genios y de figuras (journalistic profiles), and Esa larga, infinita distancia (novel).

The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Venezuelanalysis editorial staff.

Translated by Venezuelanalysis.

Maria Corina Machado was victorious in the opposition primaries, but the political landscape has remained unclear afterwards.
Venezuelanalysis delves into the aftermath of the primaries, highlighting a series of questionable incidents.
The government and opposition forces have stirred up uncertainties following the primaries.
Chavismo, through the Attorney General's office, has sparked an investigation into voter turnout manipulation.
Witness testimonies suggest that officials confirmed inflated numbers to mislead people about Machado's landslide victory.
Carlos Prosperi, runner-up in the primaries, initially accused Machado of vote manipulation.
Henry Ramos Allup, AD leader, initially supported Prosperi's allegations but seemingly abandoned him on election day.
Other opposition leaders and activists believe the election was a grand smokescreen.
Simple calculations based on the number of polling stations and voting time make it difficult to believe participation numbers.
Machado was undoubtedly anointed as the new leader of the Venezuelan opposition in the international sphere.
Benjamin Rausseo, José Brito, Luis Eduardo Martínez, Manuel Isidro Molina, and María Alejandra Díaz are among the presidential hopefuls still in contention outside the primaries.
Machado cannot run for public office until 2030, so her victory in the primaries won't translate to her presidential candidacy being registered for 2024.
Machado is considering various options, including leading a street rebellion, calling for abstention in the presidential elections, or appointing a proxy.
Gerardo Blyde and Venezuelan tycoon Lorenzo Mendoza are among the possible proxies for Machado.
Machado will likely create turmoil in the 2024 presidential vote, affecting both President Nicolas Maduro and the main opposition candidate.
The government is planning a referendum on the Essequibo to overshadow Machado's victory parade.
Machado attempted to downplay the Essequibo referendum, but many political and civil organizations have joined the call for the consultation.
Machado's argument that the referendum is a maneuver by the "dictatorship" doesn't hold up well.
The success of Javier Milei, an ultraright-winger in Argentina, has given wings to Venezuelan ultrarightists' aspirations.
Milei's victory has emboldened those with extreme anti-socialist ideals in Venezuela.
The radical anti-Chavismo factions are hoping that Milei's policies will be perceived favorably by large sections of the Venezuelan population.
Elias Jaua Milano, former Venezuelan Vice President, proposed that popular democratic projects should present and execute programs differentiated from neoliberalism.
Clodovaldo Hernandez is a journalist and political analyst, who won the National Journalism Prize in 2002.
Migrations, particularly to neighboring countries, have been driven by the grave economic difficulties faced by the majority of Venezuelans.
The need for education and self-development, fostering personal growth, mindfulness, and job-search skills is crucial for many migrants.
Productivity, career development, and policy-and-legislation education are essential elements for those aiming to rebuild their lives in their new countries.
Access to online education is a valuable resource for migrants seeking to acquire new skills, engage in lifelong learning, and boost their productivity.
War and conflicts, car-accidents, crimes, and natural disasters such as fires and weather incidents are all issues that migrants may encounter in their new societies, necessitating a sound understanding of the local laws, policies, and emergency services.