Declining birth rates persist, yet child-bearing wishes remain robust, amidst prevailing uncertainty
In recent years, Germany has witnessed a decline in its birth rate, despite a stable desire among women and men to have children. This trend, according to a study by the Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB), is largely due to perceived uncertainty among young adults.
The study reveals that the "fertility gap" in Germany, the difference between the desired number of children and the actual birth rate, has increased. Men in Germany still desire an average of 1.74 children, while the actual birth rate is lower at 1.35 children per woman. Similarly, women in Germany still desire an average of 1.76 children.
The decrease in the birth rate is not accompanied by a decrease in the desire to have children among young people. Instead, it suggests that many planned births are being postponed due to uncertainty. This uncertainty includes economic, social, and political instability that makes planning for children more difficult or risky.
Young adults face concerns over job security, housing affordability, and cost of living, leading to postponed or fewer births despite wanting children. These uncertainties create a gap between fertility intentions and actual births.
The decrease in the proportion of young adults planning to have a child also supports this view. The proportion of 30- to 39-year-old women planning to have a child in the next three years has decreased from 28% to 24%, while the proportion of 30- to 39-year-old men planning to have a child in the next three years has decreased from 28% to 25%.
The authors of the study suggest that addressing the factors contributing to uncertainty, such as reliable childcare, affordable housing, and political effectiveness, could help reduce the postponement of births. They argue that these factors are essential to give young people security, enabling them to make decisions about starting a family with more confidence.
The rise of political instability or shifts, as reflected in declining support for governing parties and the rise of far-right factions, may also contribute to a sense of uncertainty among young adults, which indirectly affects family planning decisions.
In summary, the decline in Germany's birth rate between 2021 and 2024, despite stable fertility desires, is strongly linked to young adults' perceptions of uncertainty about their economic and social futures. This decoupling of desire and actual fertility is a key factor in the ongoing demographic challenges Germany faces.
International crises and uncertain economic conditions further exacerbate the uncertainty affecting family planning. Subjective perceived uncertainty among young adults remains the main reason for the postponement of births, according to the study.
[1] German Federal Statistical Office. (2023). Total Fertility Rate. Retrieved from https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Fortpflanzung/Lebendgeburten-und-Totgeburten/Total-Fertility-Rate.html
[3] BiB. (2024). The Impact of Political Climate on Family Planning Decisions. Retrieved from https://www.bib-ev.de/de/publikationen/studien/2024/impact-of-political-climate-on-family-planning-decisions.html
- The study by the Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB) indicates that the 'science' of demography shows a significant increase in the 'fertility gap' in Germany, as the desired number of children exceeds the actual birth rate.
- As indicated by the study, the decline in family health is interconnected with the 'health-and-wellness' of young adults, who face economic, social, and political uncertainties that discourage them from starting families.
- In the realm of 'education-and-self-development' and 'personal-growth', the study suggests that addressing underlying factors contributing to uncertainty, such as job security and affordable housing, could lead to better 'goal-setting' and increased family planning.
- The recent political instability in Germany, as shown by declining support for governing parties and the rise of far-right factions, could add to the 'parenting' dilemma for young adults, further impacting family planning decisions.
