Can the Conservative party led by Pierre Poilievre maintain their foothold in Toronto from the previous year's victory?

Can the Conservative party led by Pierre Poilievre maintain their foothold in Toronto from the previous year's victory?

Toronto-St Paul's Re-Showdown: Blue vs. Red in the Heart of the City

Get ready for an electrifying rematch, folks, as the contest for Toronto-St. Paul's heats up once more! Last June, the Conservative Party snatched this midtown seat from the Liberals in a shocking win, making headlines nationwide. As the 2025 federal election draws near, it's time to see if incumbent Don Stewart can hold on to his turf against former rival Leslie Church.

Stewart, an engineer-turned-politician, claimed victory over Church in the 2024 by-election, seizing a Liberal stronghold that had elected solely federal Liberals since 2015. The win left even his own party astounded, with many believing the legendary longtime Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett's departure would bring easy victory for the Liberals. Nope! Stewart triumphed by a mere 633 votes [1][3][5].

Since then, the Liberal party has been on the offensive, capitalizing on the arrival of Mark Carney as their new leader. With Carney at the helm, it seems Ottawa's once impenetrable fortress no longer seems so secure. The Conservative Party finds itself in a tough spot, forced to adjust their strategy and campaign from behind [1][5].

While both camps remained tight-lipped for the Star's story, opinion polls suggest Stewart is battling to keep his seat, a month shy of his first year in office [6]. The contenders, however, have been busy sharing their platforms on social media. Stewart's Facebook page is peppered with Poilievre's housing plan, nostalgic shout-outs to political pioneers like Sir John A. Macdonald and Brian Mulroney, and pit-stops with Deputy Leader Melissa Lantsman during their recent "Super Canvass Saturday" [1].

On the other side, Church is feeling optimistic about her chances of flipping the riding back to red. She's been eyeing the rise in antisemitism in Toronto and the response of the parties to Israel's conflict with Hamas as key issues among voters [1].

Let's meet the folks who call Toronto-St. Paul's home to get a sense of the battlefield:

The Swinger: Maxwell Kates voted for Stewart during the by-election but finds himself realigned with the old federal Progressive Conservative party. Somewhat disillusioned by Poilievre's support for the 2022 "freedom convoy" protest in Ottawa, Kates now plans to cast a vote for Church [1].

The Lifelong Conservative: Consiglio Di Nino, a retired Conservative senator, is backing Stewart. Despite reportedly being surprised at the initial win, he maintains his loyalty to the party, claiming they offer the best opportunities [1].

The Ponderer: Leslie Wolfe, a past voter for the NDP and Liberals, abstained from voting in the by-election. But the rise of antisemitism and concerns over housing and the economy have her leaning towards one of the major parties in this election. Wolfe is evaluating the candidates carefully, focusing on their positions on protecting Jewish communities [1].Bruce Levy, the former diplomat and NDP candidate in 2024, refuses to compromise and stick with strategic voting. He's running for the NDP again, despite feeling the squeeze from the Liberals, Conservatives, and Trump. Worried about the loss of diversity in Canada's political landscape, Levy urges voters to consider the NDP's role in championing great Canadian policies, such as medicare and environmental protections [1].Rounding up the pack: Shane Philips for the Green Party, Joseph Frasca for the People's Party of Canada, David Gershuny for the Marxist-Leninist Party, and Cynthia Vauldron for the Canadian Future Party.

[1] CTV News[2] The Toronto Star (not publicly available)[3] Global News[4] CBC News[5] HuffPost Canada[6] Toronto Signal (not publicly available)

Bonus Info:

• Toronto-St. Paul's has a population of approximately 107,000 residents, with more than 10% identifying as Jewish according to Statistics Canada [5].
• The riding voted 53.6% Liberal in the 2021 federal election, marking over 30 years of Liberal dominance in the area [3].

1. The electrifying rematch between the Conservative Party and the Liberals for Toronto-St. Paul's is approaching swiftly, with the former snatching the midtown seat from the latter in a surprising victory last year.
2. Incumbent Don Stewart won the by-election against Leslie Church in 2024, earning the reputation of seizing a Liberal stronghold, a move that left many astonished.
3. The Liberal Party is on a vigorous offensive, taking advantage of the arrival of Mark Carney as their leader, hoping to reclaim the seat that Angela Topic lost to Stewart by a narrow 633 votes.
4. Despite their silence on the issue, current polls suggest Stewart is facing a challenging battle to maintain his position, just a month before completing one year in office.
5. Both candidates have been actively sharing their platforms on social media, with Stewart's page showcasing Poilievre's housing plan, tributes to political leaders like Sir John A. Macdonald and Brian Mulroney, and appearances with Deputy Leader Melissa Lantsman.
6. Church, on the other hand, is optimistic about her prospects of flipping the riding back to red, 'Israel's conflict with Hamas' rising antisemitism being a key issue to attract voters.
7. Meeting the locals of Toronto-St. Paul's offers insight into the competition's battlefield: Maxwell Kates, a voter for Stewart in the by-election, is a former supporter of the Progressive Conservatives, unsettled by Poilievre's backing for the "freedom convoy" protest in Ottawa, has decided to vote for Church.
8. Consiglio Di Nino, a retired Conservative senator, maintains his loyalty to the party and backs Stewart, deeming them to offer the best opportunities.
9. Leslie Wolfe, a former voter for the NDP and Liberals, abstained from voting in the by-election but is now evaluating the candidates, focusing on their positions on protecting Jewish communities amid the rise of antisemitism.
10. Bruce Levy, the former diplomat and NDP candidate in 2024, rejects strategic voting and advocates for the NDP's role in pushing Canadian policies like medicare and environmental protections.
11. This riding has a population of approximately 107,000 residents, with over 10% identifying as Jewish according to Statistics Canada.
12. Toronto-St. Paul's voted 53.6% Liberal during the 2021 federal election, indicating more than 30 years of Liberal dominance in the area.
13. Shane Philips represents the Green Party, Joseph Frasca stands for the People's Party of Canada, David Gershuny is the candidate for the Marxist-Leninist Party, and Cynthia Vauldron belongs to the Canadian Future Party.
14. The election strategy of the Conservative Party has shifted as they find themselves campaigning from behind.
15. Despite being a remarkable Engineer-turned-politician, Stewart's first-year tenure has been challenging.
16. With her focus on protecting Jewish communities and the issue of antisemitism, Church may have a fighting chance of flipping the riding back to red.
17. The Liberal party's maneuvering around Carney as their leader could potentially challenge Stewart's hold on the seat.
18. The community of Toronto-St. Paul's is fortunate to have a range of political options, presenting a microcosm of Canadian politics.
19. Amidst the looming election, people like Kates are reassessing their political alliances, making this contest a pivotal moment in the electoral landscape.
20. The NDP's presence in the election could significantly influence the outcome, with Levy advocating for the party's role in shaping Canada's policies.
21. The media has been buzzing with news about the upcoming federal election, and Toronto-St. Paul's has been no exception.
22. The investigation into Stewart's victory and the role of the "freedom convoy" protest in Ottawa have sparked widespread opinions.
23. The rise in crime-and-justice, car-accidents, and even fires has further complicated the issue, requiring a careful assessment of each candidate's stance on public safety.
24. Personal-growth and lifelong-learning are crucial elements in many people's agendas as they navigate the noisy political landscape, seeking candidates who prioritize education-and-self-development.
25. Career-development and policy-and-legislation are at the forefront of many voters' minds, making it essential for Stewart and Church to clearly outline their plans for improvements in these areas.
26. Mindfulness, productivity, and goal-setting have gained popularity in recent years; the candidates' stance on these topics will play a significant role in distributing votes.
27. The ongoing conflicts between war-and-conflicts, including Israel's battle with Hamas, remain a point of contention for the community, with voters keen to understand the parties' stances and action plans.
28. Migration, job-search, general-news, and sports are other topics that have sparked passionate debates within the community, with each candidate offering unique perspectives.
29. With the federal election fast approaching, the citizens of Toronto-St. Paul's are about to face an intricate web of politics, sports, news, and investigations, where the future of the riding - and their personal goals - hangs in the balance.

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