Barclays 2026 agribusiness outlook reveals winners and losers in a shifting market
Barclays has released its 2026 outlook for the agribusiness sector, highlighting a mix of opportunities and challenges. While some areas like seeds and fertilizers show promise, others—including crop protection and North American beef—face ongoing pressures.
The bank has also adjusted its ratings for several key companies, reflecting shifting market conditions and growth expectations.
In its latest report, Barclays kept a neutral stance on the agribusiness sector for 2026. However, it pointed to clear differences between sub-sectors. Seeds and proteins are seen as resilient due to steady farmer demand and stronger company balance sheets. In contrast, crop protection and consumer-focused segments may struggle with weaker margins and softer demand.
Nitrogen markets are expected to improve next year, offering potential gains for producers. But phosphate and potash could weaken further, with risks of long-term decline. Barclays upgraded CF Industries and Mosaic to Overweight, citing their free cash flow potential and operational improvements. Corteva also remains a preferred pick in the sector.
The outlook for North American beef is less optimistic. Barclays warned that profitability may not recover until late 2027 or early 2028. Meanwhile, FMC was downgraded to Underweight after losing market share and facing margin pressure, with little visible growth ahead.
A proposed $12 billion U.S. farmer aid package could shift planting decisions, favouring soybeans over other crops. This might affect input suppliers and grain processors, though the exact impact remains uncertain. Barclays also flagged caution around grains, ingredients, and beverages, noting risks from unclear U.S. biofuel policies and weak consumer spending.
Performance in 2026 will likely depend on company-specific factors. Strong balance sheets and exposure to high-growth sub-sectors, such as seeds and nitrogen, could set the best-performing firms apart.
Barclays’ report suggests a divided agribusiness landscape in 2026, with bright spots in seeds and fertilizers but persistent struggles in beef and crop protection. The bank’s stock ratings reflect these shifts, favouring companies with solid cash flow and operational momentum.
The proposed U.S. aid package adds another layer of uncertainty, potentially reshaping planting trends and supply chains. Investors will need to watch sub-sector dynamics closely as the year unfolds.
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